Message of the Markets

tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-203491002011-07-07T18:51:02.037-07:00Message of the MarketsA guide for understanding and profiting from the message of the markets based on technical analysis and Austrian Economics.Rob Ryleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01706863450544932517noreply@blogger.comBlogger121100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20349100.post-46347473332724487042009-07-23T16:39:00.000-07:002009-07-23T17:19:55.805-07:00A look at Stock market Breadth.

The market, true to form, did what it always does--fool the most people, including me.We have rallied over 10% in a week. I have been somewhat skeptical of the rally, and at the start of the month, began getting into long term put positions. Needless to say, the move has caused me to look closely at my investment thesis that this is a bear market rally.As you can see from the chart, market

Rob Ryleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01706863450544932517noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20349100.post-59631172999800630012009-07-14T06:11:00.000-07:002009-07-14T06:27:05.688-07:00Sell on Goldman's good news

It shouldn't surprise anyone that Goldman's trading gains greatly exceeded expectations. Typically make about a quarter of NYSE trading volume passes through Goldman (Zerohedge: Goldman Principal Transactions), and that share has been growing.What is somewhat revealing is the action of the futures this morning--up before the announcement, flat to slightly down afterward. What do the charts

Rob Ryleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01706863450544932517noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20349100.post-66257150075922876972009-07-09T11:56:00.000-07:002009-07-09T11:58:24.308-07:00Michael Covel's Trend Following review

I just posted a review of Michael Covel's book Trend Following. Take a look at my other blogOpen Source Tools for Traders.

Rob Ryleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01706863450544932517noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20349100.post-16693817002145731622009-07-06T07:35:00.000-07:002009-07-07T06:52:28.459-07:00The Dollar Dilemma, Treasuries vs. Corporates, and more

I remember having an argument with someone last year about inflation vs. deflation. I had been solidly in the debt deflation camp, and expected a rally in the dollar and treasuries. He was solidly in the "sub-hyperinflation" camp, our exchange went something like this (Circa April 2008):Me: The losses in the banking system are massive. Credit is contracting, we are going to see debt

Rob Ryleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01706863450544932517noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20349100.post-61561918471272810612009-07-01T10:38:00.001-07:002009-07-01T11:44:04.541-07:00Can you trust anyone in the market????

Can you trust anyone in this market?Although it seems obvious to me that data vendors and brokers of all sorts might mine their customer data and attempt toprofit from it, Goldman Sachs now makes it part of their EULA for their institutional portal 360.gs.com."Monitoring by GS: Your use of the products and services on this Web site may be monitored by GS, and that the resultant information may

Rob Ryleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01706863450544932517noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20349100.post-53302679548273456852009-07-01T10:25:00.000-07:002009-07-01T10:36:51.185-07:00CAUTION: MARKET BEING MANIPULATED

Here is a must see video from Bloomberg on Youtube:Thanks go to Zerohedge for this story.

Rob Ryleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01706863450544932517noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20349100.post-29456966324297535062009-06-28T12:43:00.000-07:002009-06-29T06:49:26.391-07:00What are Exchange Traded Funds telling us?

A few days ago I came across an interesting article from economist and investment advisor Mark Skousen, who wrote an article on the Friedman Effect that struck me as superficial. What particularly irked me: "The stock market will probably continue to push higher for now, due to the lag time in the Friedman Effect. The Dow might even reach 10,000 by the end of this year. " The dominant

Rob Ryleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01706863450544932517noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20349100.post-83285973238785209562009-06-25T08:42:00.000-07:002009-06-25T08:47:47.679-07:00Message of the Markets Resurrected

I had the idea for a blog -- Message of the Markets over 3 years ago, long before the burst of the housing bubble, the credit crisis, or global depression captured the headlines, or the public imagination.Back then, I could see the U.S. and the rest of the world were headed on a dangerous path. World leaders had sewn the seeds of economic decline decades ago, and those “green shoots” are now

Rob Ryleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01706863450544932517noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20349100.post-1137903259541037122006-01-21T20:00:00.000-08:002006-06-01T18:01:38.340-07:00Market Sells Off after New Year Rally: Long Term Technical Outlook

After a strong start to the new year, the market has given bulls a wild ride. Since the minor sell-off ending on 12/30/2005, the SP tacked on 3.68% in a mere 7 trading sessions, with that rally ending on 1/11/2006. Technology issues in the Nasdaq sprinted to a 5.72% gain during the same period. Small caps, to the surprise of most market analysts, continue to outperform, and posted a 5.64% gain,

Rob Ryleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01706863450544932517noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20349100.post-1136610972023559232006-01-06T21:07:00.000-08:002006-01-06T21:16:12.053-08:00Stocks at 4 1/2 Year Highs: What Does It Mean?

It has been an exciting start to the new year for the bulls. Since 12/30/2005, the SP-500 rose 2.98% to 1285; the Nasdaq leads advance among large caps by gaining 4.55% to 2305, while the Dow Jones Industrials improved by a more modest 1.26% to 10,959.31.With the exception of large cap technology, small caps continue to outperform large caps. The Russell 2000 gained 3.73% this week. Small caps

Rob Ryleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01706863450544932517noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20349100.post-1136179291860396432006-01-01T19:50:00.000-08:002006-01-01T22:24:33.556-08:00Yield Curve Inversion: Time to Worry?

In a slow news week for the financial markets, the reporters at Bloomberg have made a big deal about yield curve inversion:Yield CurveThe yield on the benchmark two-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.40 percent, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The 10-year note yielded 4.39 percent. An inverted curve, where short-term yields exceed long-term yields, last occurred in December

Rob Ryleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01706863450544932517noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20349100.post-1135973799092016972005-12-30T12:12:00.000-08:002006-01-01T02:37:03.656-08:00Why This Blog: Intro to Technical Analysis and Austrian Economics

The financial markets are a difficult place, with experts holding conflicting opinions on just about everything. Combating information overload is crucial. Also important is developing a personal philosophy to help absorb useful information, while rejecting what is useless.I have a few reasons for putting together this blog. First, I've been through the process of confusion and frustration many

Rob Ryleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01706863450544932517noreply@blogger.com0